Rugby League followers on both sides of the Tasman will be well served when the 2011 NRL Premiership decider kicks off at ANZ Stadium at 5pm on Sunday 2 October.

This trans-Tasman contest is a true promoter’s dream, as the black hats (Manly) square off against their rivals from the Land of the Long White Cloud, with NRL premiership honours as the spoils. It seems that all in the Rugby League world, save for Sydney’s northern peninsula, are looking towards a Warriors win.

In so many respects this theme is old and recurring – the feted Manly versus an underdog opponent, a scenario as familiar and comfortable to the Sea Eagles as a favourite t-shirt. Whilst Manly will start favourites, a little analysis reveals this grand final decider as a genuine even-money proposition.

Anyone who witnessed the Warriors’ display of brute strength combined with flashes of match-winning brilliance as they ended the Melbourne Storm’s season cannot deny the Warriors have the personnel to beat any other outfit. Club allegiances and personal bias aside: what other team in the 2011 NRL premiership would have matched it with the rampant Warriors last week?

Sunday’s opening exchanges will be fierce. Much will depend upon how the Warriors handle the early pressure. The Manly forwards will be looking to contain the bull-like charges of the Warriors’ Sam Rapira, Jacob Lillyman and so significant is this contest the final scoreboard may well be decided in that frenetic first fifteen minutes.

The skill of the halves pairings is the equivalent of anything witnessed in the NRL in recent seasons. For Manly, Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans have steered much of their club’s fortunes this season, week-in, week-out their contributions ranging from very good to brilliant. The Warriors duo, James Maloney and Shaun Johnson came together relatively late in the season but have answered any questions put to them by opposing teams.

If the Sea Eagles can claim any clear advantage it is on the score of consistency. Their structured game contrasts markedly with the unpredictable, free-flowing style of the Warriors. Manly will also be looking to create tryscoring chances with their right-field attack. It is here that Glenn Stewart combines so well with Jamie Lyon to create scoring opportunities for Brett Stewart and Will Hopoate.

Another factor that will contribute to the outcome will be the performance of the respective benches. Whether he starts or is thrown into the fray after 20 minutes, Feleti Mateo will require plenty of watching by the Manly defenders. Against the Storm, Mateo played a similar game to the one unleashed by Paul Gallen in Origin II this year. Livewire utility Lance Hohia, in his farewell to the NRL, can be expected to have a telling involvement.

The clash of the coaches highlights an engaging twist. Ivan Cleary who learnt his football in the Manly junior nursery is Penrith-bound next season, and will match wits and gameplan with Des Hasler, a Penrith product who left the foot of the mountains and became a legend at Manly.

Manly are entitled to be favourites. However, at $1.50 they are a shade under the odds. Had Melbourne earned the right to play Manly in the decider, the Storm would have started equal favourites. Using this as a guide, the Warriors’ impressive win over the Storm stamps them as the real value bet at $2.70.

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For those looking for a value bet at double-figure odds, we suggest a stake on Anthony Watmough (Manly) as first tryscorer currently paying $15.00 at Sportsbet, with a saver on Jacob Lillyman (Warriors) to take the Clive Churchill Medal which is currently paying $29.00. Either one of these is sure to make your Grand Final one to remember, no matter who you want to win.

Manly-Warringah became the first side to qualify for the NRL grand final with a methodical 26-14 win over Brisbane in front of 31,894 at the Sydney Football Stadium on Friday night.

The men from Sydney’s northern peninsula made an ideal start in the windy conditions. The Eagles received two early penalties to carry them into the opposition twenty for hooker Matt Ballin to crash over from dummy half after only four minutes. Jamie Lyon’s conversion put Manly in front 6-0.

Manly raced to a 16-0 lead through tries to Will Hopoate (10^th minute) and Brett Stewart (20^th minute). Stewart capitalised on a wonderful delayed pass from half-back Daly Cherry-Evans to touch down in a handy position for Lyon to convert.

Jharal Yow Yeh kept the Broncos in some contention when he scored a classic winger’s try close to half-time. The Queensland and Australian rep made an athletic leap to claim a cross-kick from Matt Gillett to send the sides to the break with Manly ahead 16-4.

Hopoate claimed his second try early in the second stanza when he dived over in the corner, again after some great lead-up from Lyon and Cherry-Evans.

Even sixteen points down the Broncos were not going away. Peter Wallace burst on to a clever offload from Corey Parker to touch down under the posts. Parker converted, leaving Manly a slightly uneasy ten points in front.

Brisbane’s hopes, however, were dashed shortly thereafter when Manly’s Kieran Foran trailed a midfield bomb and wrenched the ball from the grasp of fullback Gerard Beale to score. Lyon’s conversion put the Sea Eagles in front 26-10 and effectively into next Sunday’s premiership decider.

The match was played at a very swift tempo in the sometimes blustery conditions. The Eagles played solid, mistake-free football on the back of the platform laid by their forwards. Cherry-Evans performed with the aplomb of a ten-season veteran and his judicious kicking troubled the Broncos. Manly’s Tony Williams and Steve Matai were both placed on report and the duo will face a few anxious moments in the first days of grand final week.

Sadly, with this result the curtain has dropped on the club career of Bronco immortal-to-be named Darren Lockyer. Locky’s cheekbone injury kept him out of the elimination final. It is doubtful though if even his inspirational presence could have made any difference to the final scoreline, with Manly leading from the fourth minute and always seeming in control.

Manly-Warringah 26 (W Hopoate 2, K Foran, M Ballin, B Stewart tries; J Lyon 3 goals) def Brisbane 14 (J Yow Yeh, P Wallace, D Copley tries; C Parker goal).

Sydney Football Stadium 23 September 2011

Crowd 31,894

With the NRL finals entering the final stages, John Colledge provides Miller's Guide with exclusive insight into how he see's this weeks match ups as well as a review of the best bets for anyone looking for a little flutter on any of this weekends games. Who said the Sea Eagles being the favourite would be a stretch? Not Sea Eagles Cheerleader Tamar Leek, that's for certain!

Locky out – Eagles soar to favouritism

Friday night at the Sydney Football Stadium will see plenty of questions asked and answered as Manly-Warringah and Brisbane vie to become the first team to qualify for the 2011 NRL Grand Final.

The two most obvious questions for fans to ask about the Broncos are: can they win a sudden-death finals match without inspirational skipper Daren Lockyer to usher them around the park? And did they play their grand final a fortnight early in their epic 13-12 win over St George Illawarra last Saturday?

Lockyer’s presence will be missed, no doubt. However, with Matt Gillett now claiming the No 6 jersey the Broncos will enjoy the luxury of replacing an immortal with a potential superstar. Sam Thaiday returns to the Broncos pack after serving a suspension and his charges on the right of the ruck and his ability to offload after attracting multiple tacklers will trouble Manly’s defence.

Questions arise regarding Manly’s ability, minus their forward stalwarts Jason King and Glenn Stewart, to defeat a quality opponent in a knockout finals encounter. Their recent off-field dramas have been well chronicled, but coach Des Hasler, a consummate professional, will have done everything in his power to ensure his players’ minds are focused upon football and nothing else.

This match could well be decided by the respective halves pairings. For the Eagles, Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran have performed solidly, at times brilliantly, throughout season 2011. With 355-game Broncos veteran Lockyer missing, much of the kicking in general play will become the responsibility of Peter Wallace, one of the most consistent players week-in, week-out in the NRL. Gillett’s late season form has been of such quality that he is regarded as a selection chance for the Australian team to be named after the finals series. Queensland great Wally Lewis has publicly endorsed Gillett’s replacement of Lockyer at five-eighth, claiming the 21-year-old will handle the position with ease.

Current odds: Sea Eagles $1.45; Broncos $2.75

A value wager: Steve Mattai – first try scorer $8.00

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Storm Warning for Trans-Tasman visitors

Rugby League fans are certain to witness a herculean tussle when the New Zealand Warriors and the Melbourne Storm square off in the NRL grand final eliminator match at AAMI Park in Melbourne on Saturday night.

From the front row right through to the coaching box this clash presents a tantalising contrast in styles. Melbourne is a methodical outfit that relies on a tried and true style enhanced with flashes of brilliance. The New Zealanders play an exciting ad lib game that makes them a danger to any opponent, irrespective of the state of the scoreboard. Even the coaches could not be further apart in manner, Craig Bellamy’s unmistakable passion a far remove from the Warriors’ Ivan Cleary’s calm, almost studious, demeanour.

The Storm execute the basics of Rugby League better than any other team in the NRL, with Bellamy ensuring each of his players carries out his allocated assignment to his optimum. The Storm forwards, led so well in the exchanges by Cameron Smith, invariably lay a solid platform for the silky skills of Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Gareth Widdop to come to the fore later in the match.

This foolproof method of the Storm indeed provides a stark difference in style from the free-flowing, cerebral rugby league played by the Warriors. Make no mistake though, these Warriors are not just a hit-and-miss outfit. Probably more than any other side in the NRL, the Kiwis have the physical attributes to match it with the Storm. Their halves pairing of James Moloney and Shaun Johnson both have that ability to capitalise on half-chances. So too, does Lance Hohaia, the sole survivor from the Warriors 2002 grand final team, who could provide the real “X-factor” off the bench.

Always succinct, Storm coach Bellamy summed up this match in typical fashion: “… what’s happened in the past isn’t going to matter on Saturday night,” he said.

Current odds: Storm $1.42; Warriors $2.95

A value wager: Kevin Proctor – first try scorer $17.00

If you don't yet have a Sportsbet account, we have good news for you. Sign up now using our exclusive Miller's Guide link and Sportsbet will give you a free match bet up to $250. Simply create your account using our exclusive link below, make a deposit, and your first bet up to $250 will be matched by Sportsbet. It doesn't get any better than that.

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