Locky out – Eagles soar to favouritism
With the NRL finals entering the final stages, John Colledge provides Miller's Guide with exclusive insight into how he see's this weeks match ups as well as a review of the best bets for anyone looking for a little flutter on any of this weekends games. Who said the Sea Eagles being the favourite would be a stretch? Not Sea Eagles Cheerleader Tamar Leek, that's for certain!
Locky out – Eagles soar to favouritism
Friday night at the Sydney Football Stadium will see plenty of questions asked and answered as Manly-Warringah and Brisbane vie to become the first team to qualify for the 2011 NRL Grand Final.
The two most obvious questions for fans to ask about the Broncos are: can they win a sudden-death finals match without inspirational skipper Daren Lockyer to usher them around the park? And did they play their grand final a fortnight early in their epic 13-12 win over St George Illawarra last Saturday?
Lockyer’s presence will be missed, no doubt. However, with Matt Gillett now claiming the No 6 jersey the Broncos will enjoy the luxury of replacing an immortal with a potential superstar. Sam Thaiday returns to the Broncos pack after serving a suspension and his charges on the right of the ruck and his ability to offload after attracting multiple tacklers will trouble Manly’s defence.
Questions arise regarding Manly’s ability, minus their forward stalwarts Jason King and Glenn Stewart, to defeat a quality opponent in a knockout finals encounter. Their recent off-field dramas have been well chronicled, but coach Des Hasler, a consummate professional, will have done everything in his power to ensure his players’ minds are focused upon football and nothing else.
This match could well be decided by the respective halves pairings. For the Eagles, Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran have performed solidly, at times brilliantly, throughout season 2011. With 355-game Broncos veteran Lockyer missing, much of the kicking in general play will become the responsibility of Peter Wallace, one of the most consistent players week-in, week-out in the NRL. Gillett’s late season form has been of such quality that he is regarded as a selection chance for the Australian team to be named after the finals series. Queensland great Wally Lewis has publicly endorsed Gillett’s replacement of Lockyer at five-eighth, claiming the 21-year-old will handle the position with ease.
Current odds: Sea Eagles $1.45; Broncos $2.75
A value wager: Steve Mattai – first try scorer $8.00
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Storm Warning for Trans-Tasman visitors
Rugby League fans are certain to witness a herculean tussle when the New Zealand Warriors and the Melbourne Storm square off in the NRL grand final eliminator match at AAMI Park in Melbourne on Saturday night.
From the front row right through to the coaching box this clash presents a tantalising contrast in styles. Melbourne is a methodical outfit that relies on a tried and true style enhanced with flashes of brilliance. The New Zealanders play an exciting ad lib game that makes them a danger to any opponent, irrespective of the state of the scoreboard. Even the coaches could not be further apart in manner, Craig Bellamy’s unmistakable passion a far remove from the Warriors’ Ivan Cleary’s calm, almost studious, demeanour.
The Storm execute the basics of Rugby League better than any other team in the NRL, with Bellamy ensuring each of his players carries out his allocated assignment to his optimum. The Storm forwards, led so well in the exchanges by Cameron Smith, invariably lay a solid platform for the silky skills of Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Gareth Widdop to come to the fore later in the match.
This foolproof method of the Storm indeed provides a stark difference in style from the free-flowing, cerebral rugby league played by the Warriors. Make no mistake though, these Warriors are not just a hit-and-miss outfit. Probably more than any other side in the NRL, the Kiwis have the physical attributes to match it with the Storm. Their halves pairing of James Moloney and Shaun Johnson both have that ability to capitalise on half-chances. So too, does Lance Hohaia, the sole survivor from the Warriors 2002 grand final team, who could provide the real “X-factor” off the bench.
Always succinct, Storm coach Bellamy summed up this match in typical fashion: “… what’s happened in the past isn’t going to matter on Saturday night,” he said.
Current odds: Storm $1.42; Warriors $2.95
A value wager: Kevin Proctor – first try scorer $17.00
If you don't yet have a Sportsbet account, we have good news for you. Sign up now using our exclusive Miller's Guide link and Sportsbet will give you a free match bet up to $250. Simply create your account using our exclusive link below, make a deposit, and your first bet up to $250 will be matched by Sportsbet. It doesn't get any better than that.
2011 NRL Finals: we rate the eight
It’s September and that means we are at the business end of the NRL season. Which captain will raise the premiership trophy aloft at ANZ Stadium on Sunday 2 October? One week ahead of the first finals series clashes we gaze into our crystal ball to rank the eight contenders.
Melbourne Storm
The drama of 2010 left the southerners with a point to prove. They are playing a foolproof type of rugby league. Their “big three” of Cameron Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater give the Storm an enviable blend of brilliance, steadiness and big match experience, all of which stamp them as worthy premiership favourites.
Current odds: $3.25 Rating: 1
Wests Tigers
Can lay legitimate claim to having the best back (Benji Marshall) and the best forward (Gareth Ellis) in NRL ranks. Their ad-lib style is a reminder that rugby league is essentially an attacking game. Can repeat their success of 2005 without surprising any fans.
Current odds: $6.00 Rating: 2
Brisbane Broncos
What a side this is destined to become! Another premiership would be a fitting curtain call to Darren Lockyer’s stellar career. Despite the presence of Lockyer, Corey Parker and Sam Thaiday, the Bronco colts may lack the experience to go all the way. However, rugby league is a young man’s game…
Current odds: $6.00 Rating: 3
Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles
A potentially great halves pairing, a solid pack and plenty of strikepowerin the threequarters stamp the Eagles as genuine contenders. However, the absence of inspirational co-captain Jason King will undoubtedly affect their chances in the sudden death matches, as will the loss (until grand final time) of Glenn Stewart.
Current odds: $5.50 Rating: 4
New Zealand Warriors
If the passes stick, their kicking game is on song and the character of the match allows them to gather momentum, on any one day the Kiwis can beat any of their top-eight rivals. Like the Broncos, this exciting, unpredictable and largely under-rated outfit may be a season or two away from their absolute best.
Current odds: $9.00 Rating: 5
North Queensland Cowboys
There is plenty to like about the boys from Townsville, especially the return from injury of Johnathan Thurston and the ultra-consistent form of prop Matthew Scott. They won’t leave any bullets in the magazine, but the price on offer is probably a realistic assessment of their chances of taking their maiden premiership.
Current odds: $17.00 Rating: 6
St George Illawarra Dragons
They lost plenty of authority and experience when 2010 grand final forwards Jeremy Smith and Neville Costigan departed for other clubs. The Dragons’ poor form in the latter half of this season has been as baffling as it has been disappointing. Their form improved in the final two premiership rounds but there remains an injury cloud over playmaker and first-choice kicker Jamie Soward.
Current odds: $7.00 Rating: 7
Newcastle Knights
The outsider in a field of eight. Squeaked into the eight with a final round win over an injury-ravaged South Sydney. From eighth position, Parramatta came within one win of taking the title in 2009; can the Knights go one better this year? Probably not, but the $26 on offer is great value about a side that will play with plenty of character and emotion in the big matches.
Current odds: $26.00 Rating: 8
