Rugby League followers on both sides of the Tasman will be well served when the 2011 NRL Premiership decider kicks off at ANZ Stadium at 5pm on Sunday 2 October.

This trans-Tasman contest is a true promoter’s dream, as the black hats (Manly) square off against their rivals from the Land of the Long White Cloud, with NRL premiership honours as the spoils. It seems that all in the Rugby League world, save for Sydney’s northern peninsula, are looking towards a Warriors win.

In so many respects this theme is old and recurring – the feted Manly versus an underdog opponent, a scenario as familiar and comfortable to the Sea Eagles as a favourite t-shirt. Whilst Manly will start favourites, a little analysis reveals this grand final decider as a genuine even-money proposition.

Anyone who witnessed the Warriors’ display of brute strength combined with flashes of match-winning brilliance as they ended the Melbourne Storm’s season cannot deny the Warriors have the personnel to beat any other outfit. Club allegiances and personal bias aside: what other team in the 2011 NRL premiership would have matched it with the rampant Warriors last week?

Sunday’s opening exchanges will be fierce. Much will depend upon how the Warriors handle the early pressure. The Manly forwards will be looking to contain the bull-like charges of the Warriors’ Sam Rapira, Jacob Lillyman and so significant is this contest the final scoreboard may well be decided in that frenetic first fifteen minutes.

The skill of the halves pairings is the equivalent of anything witnessed in the NRL in recent seasons. For Manly, Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans have steered much of their club’s fortunes this season, week-in, week-out their contributions ranging from very good to brilliant. The Warriors duo, James Maloney and Shaun Johnson came together relatively late in the season but have answered any questions put to them by opposing teams.

If the Sea Eagles can claim any clear advantage it is on the score of consistency. Their structured game contrasts markedly with the unpredictable, free-flowing style of the Warriors. Manly will also be looking to create tryscoring chances with their right-field attack. It is here that Glenn Stewart combines so well with Jamie Lyon to create scoring opportunities for Brett Stewart and Will Hopoate.

Another factor that will contribute to the outcome will be the performance of the respective benches. Whether he starts or is thrown into the fray after 20 minutes, Feleti Mateo will require plenty of watching by the Manly defenders. Against the Storm, Mateo played a similar game to the one unleashed by Paul Gallen in Origin II this year. Livewire utility Lance Hohia, in his farewell to the NRL, can be expected to have a telling involvement.

The clash of the coaches highlights an engaging twist. Ivan Cleary who learnt his football in the Manly junior nursery is Penrith-bound next season, and will match wits and gameplan with Des Hasler, a Penrith product who left the foot of the mountains and became a legend at Manly.

Manly are entitled to be favourites. However, at $1.50 they are a shade under the odds. Had Melbourne earned the right to play Manly in the decider, the Storm would have started equal favourites. Using this as a guide, the Warriors’ impressive win over the Storm stamps them as the real value bet at $2.70.

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For those looking for a value bet at double-figure odds, we suggest a stake on Anthony Watmough (Manly) as first tryscorer currently paying $15.00 at Sportsbet, with a saver on Jacob Lillyman (Warriors) to take the Clive Churchill Medal which is currently paying $29.00. Either one of these is sure to make your Grand Final one to remember, no matter who you want to win.

Week 3 of the NFL season proved that no lead is safe and that no favourite can be considered too much of a lock if you are gambling on NFL games. It was one of the most heart-stopping weeks in recent memory, as many games went down to the wire with teams pulling off big comebacks. In some cases, favourites had to rally in order to avoid crashing to the ground; but in the case of the Buffalo Bills, it was a case of a big underdog pulling off a huge upset and making a case for being one of the best teams in the league.

Even though they had started the season 2-0, few people believed that the Bills had much of a chance to take down the New England Patriots. After all, the Patriots had steamrolled their first two opponents, including an impressive victory the previous week over a talented San Diego Chargers squad. Still, if you bet on NFL games, it was hard to turn down a big underdog at home, and most of the money went toward the Bills. But even with the money line moving because of a heavy pro-Buffalo bets from people gambling on sports, the Patriots were still -7 favourites.

In the early part of the game, it looked like the line was more than accurate. The Patriots jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the second quarter, and it appeared that the Bills would be lucky to keep it close. But an interception return for a touchdown helped to give Buffalo new life and close the gap to 21-10 at halftime, and the Bills kept coming in the second half. They forced New England’s Tom Brady to throw four interceptions and were able to convert enough of those into points to complete a stunning comeback. The end result was a 34-31 victory that made Buffalo fans – and lots of bettors – very happy.

This week, Buffalo has to bounce back after their emotional victory with a trip to Cincinnati. The Bills are -3 favourites against a Bengals team that looked flat on Sunday in a 13-8 loss at home to San Francisco. Keeping in mind that Cincinnati has failed to cover in its last six contests against the AFC East and has only covered once in its last 10 games against Buffalo, the Bills might be a very smart play this week for people gambling on NFL games.

Buffalo wasn’t the only team to stage a spirited comeback on Sunday to keep their record perfect through the early part of the season. Detroit came into their road game against Minnesota as -3 favourites but fell behind 20-0 at halftime. Much like Buffalo, the Lions stormed back in the second half, taking the game to overtime before winning 26-23. It was the first victory over the Vikings for Detroit since 1997 and moved them to 3-0 for the first time in ages. For Minnesota, it was another crushing second half collapse – the third time they’ve lost a double-digit, second-half lead in three games this season.

Minnesota could be a good value play this week when going on the road to face Kansas City. Both teams are 0-3 and in desperate need of a win; however, Minnesota has at least shown the ability to play good football, although they’ve lacked the consistency, while Kansas City has been just plain bad. The Chiefs have only covered in one of their last five games and they’ll need Matt Cassel to play better if they have a chance to win. Keep a close eye out on the under in this game: Minnesota’s last five road games have been under the number, while the score has been under the line in five of Kansas City’s last seven home games. With both teams struggling to move the ball with any regularity, this could be a grind-it-out game.

There are several injuries to key players that will impact gambling on sports this weekend. One of the most high-profile is the broken hand suffered by Michael Vick during Philadelphia’s loss to the Giants on Sunday. The injury is on his non-throwing hand, but Vick isn’t sure if he can play this week against San Francisco. That means that there’s a decent chance that Mike Kafka will get his first career start against the 49ers. San Francisco made rookie Andy Dalton look very confused last week, and expect Jim Harbaugh’s team to be fired up if they get a chance to play against Kafka.

One of the most intriguing games of the week is in Houston, where the Texans will take on Pittsburgh in a battle of two teams with thoughts of making deep playoff runs this year. Pittsburgh is coming off a Sunday night victory over Indianapolis that pushed them to 2-1 on the season, while Houston will be trying to rally after losing an early lead and falling to the Saints. This is a game where the over/under line might be more enticing than the spread, especially if you think lots of points are there to be scored. The total has gone over in six of Pittsburgh’s last seven games overall and in eight of Houston’s last 12 (including four of their last six home games). If you bet on NFL games and like points, this could be the game for you.

Tonight/today sees the one of the biggest games of the weekend with Monday night football as the Washington Redskins take on the Dallas Cowboys at home. Those who have FOXTEL can find the game being shown on ESPN starting from 10:30am.

Sportsbet has the home team Cowboys as favourites at $1.53 with the Redskins strong outsiders at $2.59. If you haven't got a bet on today's game yet, you still have time to take advantage of the best offer in sports betting below from Sportsbet.

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With the NRL finals entering the final stages, John Colledge provides Miller's Guide with exclusive insight into how he see's this weeks match ups as well as a review of the best bets for anyone looking for a little flutter on any of this weekends games. Who said the Sea Eagles being the favourite would be a stretch? Not Sea Eagles Cheerleader Tamar Leek, that's for certain!

Locky out – Eagles soar to favouritism

Friday night at the Sydney Football Stadium will see plenty of questions asked and answered as Manly-Warringah and Brisbane vie to become the first team to qualify for the 2011 NRL Grand Final.

The two most obvious questions for fans to ask about the Broncos are: can they win a sudden-death finals match without inspirational skipper Daren Lockyer to usher them around the park? And did they play their grand final a fortnight early in their epic 13-12 win over St George Illawarra last Saturday?

Lockyer’s presence will be missed, no doubt. However, with Matt Gillett now claiming the No 6 jersey the Broncos will enjoy the luxury of replacing an immortal with a potential superstar. Sam Thaiday returns to the Broncos pack after serving a suspension and his charges on the right of the ruck and his ability to offload after attracting multiple tacklers will trouble Manly’s defence.

Questions arise regarding Manly’s ability, minus their forward stalwarts Jason King and Glenn Stewart, to defeat a quality opponent in a knockout finals encounter. Their recent off-field dramas have been well chronicled, but coach Des Hasler, a consummate professional, will have done everything in his power to ensure his players’ minds are focused upon football and nothing else.

This match could well be decided by the respective halves pairings. For the Eagles, Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran have performed solidly, at times brilliantly, throughout season 2011. With 355-game Broncos veteran Lockyer missing, much of the kicking in general play will become the responsibility of Peter Wallace, one of the most consistent players week-in, week-out in the NRL. Gillett’s late season form has been of such quality that he is regarded as a selection chance for the Australian team to be named after the finals series. Queensland great Wally Lewis has publicly endorsed Gillett’s replacement of Lockyer at five-eighth, claiming the 21-year-old will handle the position with ease.

Current odds: Sea Eagles $1.45; Broncos $2.75

A value wager: Steve Mattai – first try scorer $8.00

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Storm Warning for Trans-Tasman visitors

Rugby League fans are certain to witness a herculean tussle when the New Zealand Warriors and the Melbourne Storm square off in the NRL grand final eliminator match at AAMI Park in Melbourne on Saturday night.

From the front row right through to the coaching box this clash presents a tantalising contrast in styles. Melbourne is a methodical outfit that relies on a tried and true style enhanced with flashes of brilliance. The New Zealanders play an exciting ad lib game that makes them a danger to any opponent, irrespective of the state of the scoreboard. Even the coaches could not be further apart in manner, Craig Bellamy’s unmistakable passion a far remove from the Warriors’ Ivan Cleary’s calm, almost studious, demeanour.

The Storm execute the basics of Rugby League better than any other team in the NRL, with Bellamy ensuring each of his players carries out his allocated assignment to his optimum. The Storm forwards, led so well in the exchanges by Cameron Smith, invariably lay a solid platform for the silky skills of Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Gareth Widdop to come to the fore later in the match.

This foolproof method of the Storm indeed provides a stark difference in style from the free-flowing, cerebral rugby league played by the Warriors. Make no mistake though, these Warriors are not just a hit-and-miss outfit. Probably more than any other side in the NRL, the Kiwis have the physical attributes to match it with the Storm. Their halves pairing of James Moloney and Shaun Johnson both have that ability to capitalise on half-chances. So too, does Lance Hohaia, the sole survivor from the Warriors 2002 grand final team, who could provide the real “X-factor” off the bench.

Always succinct, Storm coach Bellamy summed up this match in typical fashion: “… what’s happened in the past isn’t going to matter on Saturday night,” he said.

Current odds: Storm $1.42; Warriors $2.95

A value wager: Kevin Proctor – first try scorer $17.00

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