Rugby League followers on both sides of the Tasman will be well served when the 2011 NRL Premiership decider kicks off at ANZ Stadium at 5pm on Sunday 2 October.
This trans-Tasman contest is a true promoter’s dream, as the black hats (Manly) square off against their rivals from the Land of the Long White Cloud, with NRL premiership honours as the spoils. It seems that all in the Rugby League world, save for Sydney’s northern peninsula, are looking towards a Warriors win.
In so many respects this theme is old and recurring – the feted Manly versus an underdog opponent, a scenario as familiar and comfortable to the Sea Eagles as a favourite t-shirt. Whilst Manly will start favourites, a little analysis reveals this grand final decider as a genuine even-money proposition.
Anyone who witnessed the Warriors’ display of brute strength combined with flashes of match-winning brilliance as they ended the Melbourne Storm’s season cannot deny the Warriors have the personnel to beat any other outfit. Club allegiances and personal bias aside: what other team in the 2011 NRL premiership would have matched it with the rampant Warriors last week?
Sunday’s opening exchanges will be fierce. Much will depend upon how the Warriors handle the early pressure. The Manly forwards will be looking to contain the bull-like charges of the Warriors’ Sam Rapira, Jacob Lillyman and so significant is this contest the final scoreboard may well be decided in that frenetic first fifteen minutes.
The skill of the halves pairings is the equivalent of anything witnessed in the NRL in recent seasons. For Manly, Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans have steered much of their club’s fortunes this season, week-in, week-out their contributions ranging from very good to brilliant. The Warriors duo, James Maloney and Shaun Johnson came together relatively late in the season but have answered any questions put to them by opposing teams.
If the Sea Eagles can claim any clear advantage it is on the score of consistency. Their structured game contrasts markedly with the unpredictable, free-flowing style of the Warriors. Manly will also be looking to create tryscoring chances with their right-field attack. It is here that Glenn Stewart combines so well with Jamie Lyon to create scoring opportunities for Brett Stewart and Will Hopoate.
Another factor that will contribute to the outcome will be the performance of the respective benches. Whether he starts or is thrown into the fray after 20 minutes, Feleti Mateo will require plenty of watching by the Manly defenders. Against the Storm, Mateo played a similar game to the one unleashed by Paul Gallen in Origin II this year. Livewire utility Lance Hohia, in his farewell to the NRL, can be expected to have a telling involvement.
The clash of the coaches highlights an engaging twist. Ivan Cleary who learnt his football in the Manly junior nursery is Penrith-bound next season, and will match wits and gameplan with Des Hasler, a Penrith product who left the foot of the mountains and became a legend at Manly.
Manly are entitled to be favourites. However, at $1.50 they are a shade under the odds. Had Melbourne earned the right to play Manly in the decider, the Storm would have started equal favourites. Using this as a guide, the Warriors’ impressive win over the Storm stamps them as the real value bet at $2.70.
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For those looking for a value bet at double-figure odds, we suggest a stake on Anthony Watmough (Manly) as first tryscorer currently paying $15.00 at Sportsbet, with a saver on Jacob Lillyman (Warriors) to take the Clive Churchill Medal which is currently paying $29.00. Either one of these is sure to make your Grand Final one to remember, no matter who you want to win.
